Models

Guides

Models is the control room: which models are live, what they hold, how each has done, and how each decides.

The page

• Two summary panels. Active signals counts open positions and splits them long and short. All-time win rate is positions closed at a profit divided by all closed positions, shown with the count, for example 14 / 22 closed. The count matters more than the percentage.
• The table. One row per model: the index, the model name, Status (Active, No signal, or Elite only when the model is above your plan), direction, entry, P&L (unrealised, as a percentage of entry), Score, Last signal and the alert bell.
• Model Rankings. Sorted by win rate or by profit. Return/Trade is the average return per closed position. Trades/yris positions per year since the model's first one.
• Recent Closed Trades and Open Trades repeat the same records as cards, with the stop and target shown as a distance from entry.

The models

Each model is one rule on one market. The ⓘ beside a model on the page says the same thing in fewer words. The research behind each is in Methodology.

Confluence

Three versions, one each for the JSE Top 40, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. A seven-point technical checklist; a position opens when five of the seven checks agree on a direction. The checks are the price against its 200-day average, a trend being present (ADX above 20), an oversold pullback on RSI, MACD, a cross-asset momentum rank, the volatility regime, and a statistical model's probability.

High-conviction S&P 500

The confluence checklist plus a macro overlay, needing six of eight. It opens rarely, on the order of once a year, and reads neutral most weeks.

VIX spike reversion

Nasdaq 100, Elite. When the VIX jumps sharply above its 20-day average, the model reads the fear as stretched and goes long the index, exiting when the VIX normalises. Rare by design.

Gold and silver ratio

Silver, Elite. When the gold to silver ratio reaches a one-year extreme, the model goes long silver and exits when the ratio normalises. Rare by design.

Donchian breakout

Bitcoin. Long on a close above the 20-day high, short below the 20-day low, exit on a cross of the 10-day channel or a 90-day time stop, and a funding-rate gate that skips crowded trades. Runs at half size.

Score, stop, target, time stop

The Scoreis the number of checks that passed the day the position opened, out of the model's total (7 for confluence, 8 for the high-conviction model). Stop and target are set from price structure at entry and then fixed. A model may also carry a time stop: if the position is still open after its horizon, it closes regardless of price.

Reading the statuses

A closed position shows Win or Loss and an exit reason: the stop was hit, the target was hit, the time stop expired, or the entry conditions were invalidated before the position ran. History carries the same records model by model.