Models

Guides

Models is the control room: which models are live, what they hold, how each has done, and how each decides.

The page

• One tab per index.JSE Top 40, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and the rest. A tab's light is on while that index has an open position, and everything about the index sits under its tab.
• The index strip. Open counts open positions and splits them long and short. Win rate is positions closed at a profit divided by all closed positions, shown with the count, for example 14 / 22 closed. The count matters more than the percentage. Return per trade is the average return per closed position. Market read is the latest daily bar.
• One section per model, under a row of model tabs whose lights show which models hold a position. The section carries its state (Active, No signal, or Pro only when the model is above your plan), its record (Win rate, Return / trade, Trades / yr, positions per year since the model's first one, and Sharpe), the bell, then the open position card, the chart and the closed trades. Getting started walks through it top to bottom.

The models

Each model is one rule on one market. The ⓘ beside a model on the page says the same thing in fewer words. The research behind each is in Methodology.

Under each market the models sit in three horizons, by how long a position typically lasts in the backtest: Swing (days, under two weeks), Medium term (weeks) and Long term (months). Each model shows its typical hold and how often it fires.

Swing

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, Pro. A short pullback in an uptrend: the lowest close of the last 10 days while the index is above its 200-day average. It closes on the highest close of the last 5 days or after 15 trading days, then waits 5 days before the next one. About 8 a year on each index.

Confluence

Medium term, one each for the JSE Top 40, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, all on the free plan. A dip in an uptrend: an RSI pullback is required (RSI 14 under 40, under 30 on the Nasdaq), and enough of the other checks must agree: the price above its 200-day average, a trend present on ADX, MACD below zero, calm volatility, outside September and a top-two momentum rank. The JSE model needs all five of its checks. It closes when RSI recovers (over 65 on the JSE, 70 on the S&P, 60 on the Nasdaq) or after 25 trading days.

Gold and silver ratio

Silver, medium term, Pro. When the gold to silver ratio reaches a one-year extreme, the model goes long silver and exits when the ratio normalises. Rare by design.

Donchian breakout

Bitcoin, medium term, free plan. Long on a close above the 20-day high, out on a close below the 10-day low or after 90 days, and a funding-rate gate that skips crowded entries.

Trend

Long term, Pro: the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 and Bitcoin. Checked every Friday against the 1, 3, 6 and 12-month returns: long while at least three are positive, out when two or fewer are. A few positions a year, held for months. It aims to sit out sell-offs, so it lags the index in steady rallies.

Score and exits

The Scoreis the number of checks that passed the day the position opened, out of the model's total (7 for confluence, 2 for swing, 4 for trend). Each model closes a position on its own exit rules. Most carry a time cap: if the position is still open after it, it closes regardless of price. Trades marked BTin a model's history come from its backtest, not from a signal published at the time.

Reading the statuses

While a position is open the model shows Active with the direction, and the page shows where it opened: the entry. Once it closes it moves to the closed trades with its entry, its close and the return between them, and the close alert says whether it was a win or a loss.