Methodology

The research behind each model and indicator.

1. How a model is builtHow every TradeIntel model is built: the data window, the inputs, the regime and macro overlays, and how levels are set.
2. The modelsThe TradeIntel models: the confluence checklist, the high-conviction read, two mean-reversion reads and the recession overlay, with sources.
3. Backtests and their limitsWhat the TradeIntel backtests covered, the findings that carry, and what a backtest cannot tell you.
4. The sentiment compositeThe formula behind the TradeIntel Fear and Greed dials and sector scores: drivers, signs, staleness and bands.
5. The recession diffusion indexThe eleven FRED series behind the TradeIntel recession count, their thresholds, the live rule, and the out-of-sample validation.
6. Data sources and delaysWhere every TradeIntel number comes from, how often it refreshes, and how old it is when you see it.
7. Known gapsWhere the TradeIntel models and data are thin, stated plainly.
8. ReferencesThe academic and practitioner literature the TradeIntel models draw on.